Looking back at 2006 — and looking forward to 2007 — I thought it would be good to review how we did in our futures room.
It was a pretty good year. Over the 12 months my members received 1611 scalping calls and 202 position trading calls. If they took them all, the winning percentage for the scalping trades was 81.7%; for the position trades it was 59% (but the position trades had a larger average gain).
The next gain for the year was 2892.50 points for scalping calls and 529.00 for position calls. You can see a summary of the results for the year in this Excel file: http://naturus.com/Eng/Summary2006.xls
All our trades are day trades and most are quite short. The average length of our scalping trades was 8-15 minutes, or 2 or 3 bars on a 5-minute chart. We never hold positions over night.
Later in the year I made option calls on the OEX (S&P100), which also worked out nicely.
I also gave a series of on-line seminars to help my members learn to trade better. The members are very enthusiastic about the seminars, and are always asking for more. In 2007 I plan to give more seminars, mainly on advanced trading topics.
As we enter 2007, I want to emphasize again that past performance does NOT guarantee future results. We must always be aware that trading involves risk; you can lose money any time you are in the market.
There is no miracle to trading. It requires time, knowledge and concentration. But if you devote enough time and effort to learning, you can become consistently profitable. .
As I go forward into 2007, I intend to continue to provide good trading calls to our members, and help them become better and more profitable traders.
I especially want to say “Many thanks” to my colleague and friend John Lansing, the founder of www.trending123.com, for understanding our trading business and for continuing support from his staff.
And I wish all our traders everywhere a happy and prosperous New Year
S&P 500 closed at the year-end at 1424.75, up 14.1% from year 2005 closing. The yearly high was made on Dec. 15 at 1427.10 and yearly low 1219.29 was made on July 18, 2006. Total range was 207.81 points.
Starting in year 1995, S&P 500 had 5-year bull market and made all time high at 1552.87 in 2000. After March 2000, Bear took in control for mainly 2 and half year to make 70% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the year 1995 low to the year 2000 high. In early 2003, S&P 500 formed a double bottom and then took off . Since then, it has bounced up and down to form an uptrend channel. It closed above its 78% retracement from year 2002 low at 768.63
Which direction should S&P 500 go next? Watch and see if the critical 1315-1330 range can hold the price up.
On the bull side, the S&P 500 has had a four-year rally; 2007 would be the fifth rally year, and the price has already moved above 78% retracement level. Bulls argue this is evidence for this market to continue up.
The bears point out that even though the S&P 500 closed above the 78% retracement, it still was below the top band of uptrend channel. They believe at least a short-term retracement — to the lower boundary of uptrend channel around 1330-1325 range — should be expected.
If the price reaches the 1330-1325 range, both sides will pay careful attention. In particular, Bulls will definitely defend on this range. If they win, later in 2007 the S&P 500 could move higher.
But if there is any breakdown of this range, it is possible for price to dip into 1275 or lower to 1207-1203 range.
Weekly outlook – Jan 3, 2007
SPX
Before and after the Christmas holidays, the S&P 500 (SPX) had trouble to make a new high even though it bounced from its low at the 1410.25 level. Insiders mainly stood on selling side.
Because this is a very short week (the markets are closed for four consecutive days, something that rarely happens) we may see the price go sideway within the 1428 to 1410 range. If the price is unable to break out of the 1428 level, it may fall to test support around 1406.
If it fails to hold 1406, it could create downside MOMENTUM to push down price to 1370 -1368 area.
The e-mini
The S&P 500 emini (ES) broke out the top band of uptrend channel in Nov. 2006. In very short term, ES is in overbought territory. Also ES hasn’t had any major correction since July 2006.
In the past two weeks, it seems to have trouble to breakout 1438 level. Therefore a pullback to test first support zone 1400-1387 range should be expected in the coming weeks. Weekly major resistance level is 1456 and major support level is 1387.50.
Stock quotes, stock research, stock scan and picks and free stock chart pattern recognition from Trending 123.com for smart stock market investing. We feature daily stock market email alerts including equities, indices, and currencies, identified through technical analysis trends patterns and waves. Sign up today!
Financial Market Data powered by Quotemedia.com. All rights reserved. Terms and conditions.
NYSE/AMEX data delayed 20 minutes. NASDAQ/other data delayed 15 minutes unless indicated.
