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Tuesday, January 31, 2006


Evening Update -COMPQ

The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ)

Nothing has changed from the weekend update. On the daily chart, the Nasdaq is forming an ascending symmetrical triangle pattern. The COMPQ remains above the uptrend line and below resistance. So far we are in a bullish trend reversal and above 2300. The RSI is neutral, and the Williams % and PPO and stochastics are now bullish. Today, the COMPQ closed down 0.04% at 2305.82. We are still waiting on the Nasdaq to make new highs.

The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index (BPCOMPQ)
Let me ask you this question. Why does the BPCOMPQ index keep making new highs on broader market down days? The answer is this, because more stocks made new 52 weeks highs than they made 52 week lows.

Computer Hardware Index - AMEX (HWI) Daily Chart
The daily chart illustrates that the HWI has broken out of an ascending symmetrical triangle. Sectors and sub-sectors are on fire. The moving averages are holding up nicely. Notice that there are new highs in the PPO and the RSI along with price. That is B-U-L-L-I-S-H. Today the HWI closed up 0.53% at 217.710.

Commodity Related Equity Index stocks- Morgan Stanley (CRX) -
The CRX covers the following commodities: copper, silver, aluminum, oil etc...Amazingly enough, the top does not look to be in the commodity index. As you can see the on the weekly chart, the CRX has traded perfectly within it's uptrend channel for the last three years and continues to make new 52 week highs. Amazing. The CRX has gone up for the last 15 weeks in a row. Notice that there are new highs in the PPO and the RSI along with price. Indicators and oscillators are bullish. Yet they say there is no inflation!

Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) (GOLD)
The weekly chart illustrates that GOLD has broken out of and ascending triangle and has been on fire ever since the breakout in Novembr/December 2005. The trend is bullish and the PPO continues to make new highs along with multi year/decade highs in price.

The Gold Bugs Index - Amex (HUI)
The daily chart of the HUI shows that it has broken out of a sideways slim jim. It recently hit new 52 week highs, and it looks to go higher. The HUI is very strong. In addition, Spot Silver just broke out of it's ascending triangle. There are laggards in this sector that you just have to avoid, such as GSS. If you stick with the leaders and the front runners, such as NEM, GG, ABX, and GLG, you will be fine. There are no hints that a correction is about to start. Dump your precious metal laggards now and get into large caps. Again, the trend is bullish and the PPO continues to make new highs along with multi year/decade highs in price.

Oil -Light Crude-Continuous Contract (EOD)(WTIC)
The daily chart of WTIC shows that it is the process of forming a possible ascending triangle. Recently oil and energy stocks have front run the rise in OIL. It is in a wave 3 or 1 of the larger count. As oil starts to stall at former resistance and the oil stocks may take a dip. Indicators and oscillators remain bullish yet toppy.

Oil Services Holders ETF (OIH)
The daily chart of the OIH illustrates that is in a wave iii to iv. Furthermore, the OIH could be in a wave 1 or wave 3 of the larger count. Last week I recommended that we sell our oil stocks. The only holdings we have now are OXY and NGS. There has been no correction yet in the OIH, everything commodity related has been parabolic. However, the OIH may due for a pullback and we will just have to watch from the sidelines now.

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NASDAQ
Chart Patterns
NASDAQ BULLISH PERCENT INDEX
Chart Patterns
$HWI
Chart Patterns
$CRX
Chart Patterns
$GOLD
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$HUI
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OIL
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OIH--NOW (CHART BELOW WAS LAST WEEKS UPDATE IN SUB WAVE 3)
Chart Patterns
OIH
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DOW FUTURES (MIGHT AS WELL SHOW THE WORST LOOKING ONE) AND CURRENTLY DOWN 1 POINT 9:30PM EST
Chart Patterns