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Implication
An Upside Breakout is considered a bullish signal, marking a breakout from a trading range to start a new uptrend.
Description
An Upside Breakout occurs when the price of a financial instrument breaks out through the top of a trading range. This technical event indicates that prices will rise explosively over a period of days or weeks as an almost vertical uptrend appears.
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Trading Considerations
Inbound Trend
The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.
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Criteria that Supports
Duration of Trading Range
The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The longer the duration of the trading range the more significant the breakout.
Narrowness of Trading Range
The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a small difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it narrow) then the breakout is considered stronger and more reliable.
Support or Resistance
Look for a region of support or resistance around the target price. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.
Moving Average
Prices which quickly move 50% above the 200-day Moving Average strongly support this pattern.
Moving Average Trend
Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. The Moving Average should change direction within the duration of the pattern and should now be heading in the direction indicated by the pattern.
Volume
A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume during the duration of the pattern should be declining on average.
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Criteria that Refutes
Duration of the Trading Range
The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The shorter the duration of the trading range the less significant the breakout.
Narrowness of the Trading Range
The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a large difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it wide) then the breakout is considered weaker and less reliable.
No Volume Spike on Confirmation
The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.
Moving Average Trend
Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. A Moving Average that is trending in the opposite direction to that indicated by the pattern is an indication that this pattern is less reliable.
Short Inbound Trend
An inbound trend that is significantly shorter than the pattern duration is an indication that this pattern should be considered less reliable. |
